White House Transfer of Power and U.S. Environmental Commitments

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November 14, 2016Written by Jomarie Garcia; Edited by Kirsten WallerstedtBlog

Alert Summary

The United States of America has elected Donald J. Trump as its 45th President. The environmental issues championed by the President-Elect appear to contrast with those of President Barack Obama’s, which could have a large impact on business.

3E Analysis

On the morning of 9 November 2016, American citizens woke up to the news that Donald J. Trump was elected as the 45th President of the United States (U.S.). Many of the environmental issues championed by the President-Elect contrast with those of President Barack Obama. President Obama advanced several key environmental issues during his tenure, including allocating more authoritative power to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) through legislative and regulatory actions like the recently reformed Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) and the Clean Power Plan (CPP), and the ratification of the Paris Agreement adopted at the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21).

Paris Agreement and the Convention on Climate Change

The Paris Agreement was first adopted on 12 December 2015, and entered into force on 4 November 2016. Presently, the U.S. is a Signatory Party and has accepted ratification to the Agreement.

The first session of the 22nd Conference of the Parties (COP22), which is the supreme decision making body of the Convention, is currently underway in Marrakesh, Morocco. The agenda for 7-18 November 2016 included matters relating to the implementation of the Agreement, which could have repercussions on U.S. environmental laws as the Agreement enters the national stage.

Through the adoption of the Agreement, parties pledged to mitigate global annual emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) by 2020, as well as to pursue efforts to limit global average temperatures to below 2 degrees Celcius above pre-industrial levels, and to limit temperature increases to 1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This would require significant reductions of carbon emissions, which for the U.S. are currently aimed at 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025, as established during COP21.

During his presidential campaign, President-Elect Trump stated his intention to withdraw from U.S. commitments to honor the Paris Agreement. The Agreement does embed a provision, namely Article 28, for Party withdrawal after three years from the date it entered into force. If the U.S. were to withdraw its commitment after the three year period, its withdrawal would take effect one year from the date the notification was received by the Depositary.

Because it would take in total four years minimum for the U.S. to withdraw from the Paris Agreement under Article 28, a more extreme option would be for the new Administration to withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is the parent framework for the Agreement. Another option would be to simply not abide by the Agreement and to not implement our commitments nationally. 

Clean Power Plan

In October 2015, the U.S. EPA published a final rule to establish the final emission guidelines for states to follow in developing plans to reduce GHG emissions from fossil fuel-fired electric generating units, called the Clean Power Plan (CPP) Rule. Under the CPP Rule, the U.S. sets out its commitments to address climate change by setting achievable standards for power plants and goals for states to reduce carbon pollution. Compared to the Paris Agreement, the CPP Rule aims at observing a 29% carbon emission reduction by 2025; numerically speaking, both the Paris Agreement and the CPP seem to be in harmony. The President-Elect has stated he will change the current environmental framework, including dismantling the CPP as well.

Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA)

President-Elect Trump has been clear on his plans to reevaluate domestic environmental regulation. He has said he will promote coal production and approve policies which reduce regulations of the heavy and extractive industries. The President-Elect has also stated he will drastically reduce the powers of the Environmental Protection Agency and has raised the possibility of making it merely an “advisory” agency. The recently reformed Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) may also be impacted by this Congress and Administration. Despite the uncertain environment, an EPA official has informed 3E staff that the understanding internally at EPA is that TSCA reform will proceed as is.

Transition of Power

To prepare for the transition of power, President Obama established the Agency Transition Directors Council (ATDC) through the Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2015. The key roles of the ATDC are facilitation, organization and transparency. The Office of the Press Secretary for the White House released a fact sheet regarding the transition into the next administration; the opening remark promotes a peaceful transfer of power and reminds citizens that since 2015 transition councils have been coordinating said transfer.

Business Impact

Under the new U.S. Presidency, environmental regulation could be significantly reduced. This may include: withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and/or the United Nations Convention on Climate Change; the amendment or revocation of the Clean Power Plan; and the removal of many powers from the Environmental Protection Agency, which may include further revision of the provisions of TSCA.








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